Do you live in one of the most dangerous cities in Arizona?
We all watch the news and see reports on Facebook of the latest crimes that happen in our hometowns. But it can be hard to tell at a big picture level how dangerous our town actually is.
No one wants to feel unsafe, and statistically speaking, odds are that where you live is most likely relatively safe. In order to help the good people of Arizona — and anyone looking to move to Arizona — know just how close they are to danger, we took data from the annual FBI report and did some serious analysis.
You won’t be surprised to see a bunch of the biggest cities towards the top. The data shows that these ten cities are currently the most dangerous in the Grand Canyon State:
- South Tucson (Photos)
- Globe (Photos)
- Holbrook (Photos)
- Tucson (Photos)
- Tolleson (Photos)
- Page (Photos)
- Coolidge (Photos)
- Glendale (Photos)
- Phoenix (Photos)
- Tempe (Photos)
Why did South Tucson take the top spot? For the answer to this question and a detailed explanation of the data and analysis we used in creating this ranking, read on. Or learn more about the safest places in Arizona.
How we determined the most dangerous cities in Arizona for 2017?
Every year the FBI release two crime datasets, a preliminary dataset limited to the biggest cities in the country, followed by a more detailed release at the end of the year.
For our analysis, we focused on the second release of 2015 data, specifically the 2015 Crime In The United States Report. We will update the results when data becomes available for 2016 in September 2017.
So what criteria did we use? Have a look:
- Violent Crimes Per Capita
- Property Crimes Per Capita
In order to make the analysis as apples to apples as possible, we only considered cities over 5,000 in population. That left us with 50 cities in Arizona.
We then ranked each city from 1 to 50 for the two criteria with a #1 ranking being the most dangerous for the particular criteria.
Next, we averaged the two rankings into one “Dangerous Index”.
Finally, we ranked every city on the “Dangerous Index” with the lowest index being the most dangerous in Arizona — South Tucson. Read on for a detailed look at the 10 most dangerous cities in Arizona.
1. South Tucson
Population: 5,749Violent Crimes Per 100k: 1,722
Property Crimes Per 100k: 15,741
An enclave of Tucson, South Tucson stands way out as the most dangerous city in Arizona for the second year in a row, being the worst place for both violent and property crime.
The data shows that residents face a frighteningly high 1 in 58 chance of being the victim of a violent crime, and a 1 in 6.4 chance for property crime.
The bad news for South Tucson is that these numbers have remained fairly consistent, so South Tucson looks to remain at the top of this list for years to come.
Population: 7,333Violent Crimes Per 100k: 1,022
Property Crimes Per 100k: 7,759
Located in south-central Arizona, Globe was founded as a mining camp. Today it’s the 2nd most dangerous city in the state.
Unlike other cities on the list, Globe has seen a recent boom in crime, with violent crime going up from 2013-15, and property crime also going up.
Watch your wallet in Globe, because there’s a 1 in 12.9 chance of being the victim of a property crime while you’re there.
Population: 5,007Violent Crimes Per 100k: 758
Property Crimes Per 100k: 5,192
Tiny Holbrook, statistically, is the 3rd most violent city per capita in the entire state of Arizona.
While crimes here skyrocketed in 2014, apparently, local jurisdictions have made progress, as crimes went down in 2015. However, for a town of just over 5,007 people, 38 violent crimes is eye opening. Statistically, 1 in 131 residents was the victim of a rape, attack or was killed last year.
Population: 529,675Violent Crimes Per 100k: 655
Property Crimes Per 100k: 6,642
Tucson’s 4th place ranking on this list isn’t much of a surprise — it’s the 2nd biggest city in Arizona.
Tucson ranked 4th for property crime, 2015’s numbers reflect a 1 in 15.1 chance of being the victim of one.
Tucson’s slowly falling violent crime statistics are much worse than the state average coming in at 6th place.
Population: 7,029Violent Crimes Per 100k: 554
Property Crimes Per 100k: 9,517
While Tolleson’s motto is “honoring our past, positioning our future,” its 5th place spot on this list puts a grim cloud over its future prospects.
It’s 2nd in property crime, with residents facing a 1 in 10.5 chance.
The good news for the city’s future is that violent crime has fallen in recent years.
Population: 7,469Violent Crimes Per 100k: 669
Property Crimes Per 100k: 4,565
Page’s motto is “the center of Canyon County,” but the city is also the center of the 6th highest danger level in Arizona.
To give you an idea just how much more dangerous South Tucson is than anywhere else, though, consider that Page, as the 6th most dangerous, has a 3 times lower rate of violent crime and half the rate of property crime.
While that still leaves a 1 in 149chance of being the victim of a violent crime, the encouraging news is that this rate has fallen by 44% from 2013-15, and property crime also fell some in the same time period.
Population: 12,244Violent Crimes Per 100k: 481
Property Crimes Per 100k: 4,794
Coolidge is not only the home of the Casa Grande Ruins National Monument, but also to the 7th most dangerous population in Arizona.
Since 1970, Coolidge’s population has more than doubled, and with this influx of people came a lot of crime.
Luckily, violent crime has been decreasing of late, but the 1 in 20.9 chance of being the victim of a property crime has been fairly consistent.
Population: 240,374Violent Crimes Per 100k: 392
Property Crimes Per 100k: 5,389
Glendale is only 9 miles northwest of downtown Phoenix, making it the closest city on this list to Arizona’s capital.
While there’s still a 1 in 18.6 chance of being the victim of a property crime in Glendale, their crime statistics in both categories have been falling steadily.
Population: 1,559,744Violent Crimes Per 100k: 593
Property Crimes Per 100k: 3,491
Phoenix ranks as the 9th most dangerous city in Arizona.
Over 1,559,744 people jam pack Phoenix which must contribute to its high level of property crime (16th highest overall). Violent crime is a bit less of an issue placing 7th overall.
Population: 175,556Violent Crimes Per 100k: 410
Property Crimes Per 100k: 4,353
Tempe is the 8th largest city in the state and the 10th most dangerous.
While Tempe’s violent crime steadily declined from 2013-15, property crime went up.
With barely any net gain in crime reduction during these years, it seems Tempe is doomed to remain on the list of most dangerous cities in Arizona.
Locking It All Up In Arizona
The latest FBI crime data shows that South Tucson ranks as the most dangerous city in Arizona for 2017.
However, there will be new data coming out later this year. At that point we can revisit South Tucson’s status — that is if they haven’t beaten us all up already.
If you’re curious enough, here are the safest cities in Arizona:
For more Arizona reading , check out:
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- These Are The 10 Dumbest Cities In Arizona
- These Are The 10 Drunkest Cities In Arizona
Detailed List Of The Most Dangeroues Cities In Arizona
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