Do you live in one of the most dangerous cities in Arizona?
We all watch the news and see reports on Facebook of the latest crimes that happen in our hometowns. But it can be hard to tell at a big picture level how dangerous our town actually is.
No one wants to feel unsafe, and statistically speaking, odds are that where you live is most likely relatively safe. In order to help the good people of Arizona — and anyone looking to move to Arizona — know just how close they are to danger, we took data from the annual FBI report and did some serious analysis.
The data shows that these ten cities are currently the most dangerous in the Grand Canyon State:
- Page (Photos)
- Winslow (Photos)
- Tucson (Photos)
- Holbrook (Photos)
- Glendale (Photos)
- Tempe (Photos)
- Phoenix (Photos)
- Casa Grande (Photos)
- Cottonwood (Photos)
- Kingman (Photos)
Why did Page take the top spot? For the answer to this question and a detailed explanation of the data and analysis we used in creating this ranking, read on. Or learn more about the safest places in Arizona.
How we determined the most dangerous cities in Arizona for 2018?
Every year the FBI release two crime datasets, a preliminary dataset limited to the biggest cities in the country, followed by a more detailed release at the end of the year.
For our analysis, we focused on the JUST released 2016 data, specifically the 2016 Crime In The United States Report. We will update the results when data becomes available for 2017 in October 2018.
So what criteria did we use? Have a look:
- Violent Crimes Per Capita
- Property Crimes Per Capita
In order to make the analysis as apples to apples as possible, we only considered cities over 5,000 in population. That left us with 47 cities in Arizona.
We then ranked each city from 1 to 47 for the two criteria with a #1 ranking being the most dangerous for the particular criteria.
Next, we averaged the two rankings into one “Dangerous Index”.
Finally, we ranked every city on the “Dangerous Index” with the lowest index being the most dangerous in Arizona — Page. Read on for a detailed look at the 10 most dangerous cities in Arizona.
Read on for a detailed look at the 10 most dangerous cities in Arizona.
Population: 7,516Rank Last Year: 6 (Up 5)
Violent Crimes Per 100k: 1,144
Property Crimes Per 100k: 6,652
Page’s motto is “the center of Canyon County,” but the city is also the center of the 1st highest danger level in Arizona.
To give you an idea just how much more dangerous South Tucson is than anywhere else, though, consider that Page, as the 1st most dangerous, has a 3 times lower rate of violent crime and half the rate of property crime.
While that still leaves a 1 in 87chance of being the victim of a violent crime, the encouraging news is that this rate has fallen by 44% from 2014-16, and property crime also fell some in the same time period.
Population: 9,581Rank Last Year: 11 (Up 9)
Violent Crimes Per 100k: 782
Property Crimes Per 100k: 7,086
Also located in Navajo County, Winslow has the honor of being a city referenced in the Eagles song “Take it Easy.”
Unfortunately, it’s also the 6th most dangerous city in Arizona, with residents 1 in 98 odds of being the victim of a violent crime.
The good news is that violent crime has been dropping steadily, and property crime is down 33% in the last 2 year period that data is available.
Population: 533,663Rank Last Year: 4 (Up 1)
Violent Crimes Per 100k: 795
Property Crimes Per 100k: 5,858
Tucson’s 3rd place ranking on this list isn’t much of a surprise — it’s the 2nd biggest city in Arizona.
Tucson ranked 3rd for property crime, 2016’s numbers reflect a 1 in 17.1 chance of being the victim of one.
Tucson’s slowly falling violent crime statistics are much worse than the state average coming in at 3rd place.
Population: 5,012Rank Last Year: 3 (Down 1)
Violent Crimes Per 100k: 877
Property Crimes Per 100k: 4,030
While Holbrook is a known speed trap with rigorous enforcement of speeding laws, it is also a relative hot bed for the occurrence of crime.
As the FBI aggregates crime data based on reporting from local municipalities, it wouldn’t surprise us if Holbrook ranks highly simply because the police department does an excellent job of reporting crimes that occur within its city limits.
Holbrook has the 2nd most violent crimes in Arizona.
Population: 242,938Rank Last Year: 8 (Up 3)
Violent Crimes Per 100k: 495
Property Crimes Per 100k: 5,270
Glendale is only 9 miles northwest of downtown Phoenix, making it the closest city on this list to Arizona’s capital.
While there’s still a 1 in 19.0 chance of being the victim of a property crime in Glendale, their crime statistics in both categories have been falling steadily.
Population: 178,654Rank Last Year: 10 (Up 4)
Violent Crimes Per 100k: 504
Property Crimes Per 100k: 4,558
Tempe? On a list of most dangerous cities in Arizona? Yep.
Tempe residents faced 1 in 21.9 chance of being the victim of theft or arson in 2016.
That’s about a 10% drop from 2015, when Tempe’s rate would have been even worse.
Population: 1,586,611Rank Last Year: 9 (Up 2)
Violent Crimes Per 100k: 674
Property Crimes Per 100k: 3,690
Phoenix ranks as the 7th most dangerous city in Arizona.
Over 1,586,611 people jam pack Phoenix which must contribute to its high level of property crime (14th highest overall). Violent crime is a bit less of an issue placing 5th overall.
8. Casa Grande
Population: 51,995Rank Last Year: 12 (Up 4)
Violent Crimes Per 100k: 546
Property Crimes Per 100k: 3,354
Casa Grande, a representive from Pinal County finds itself as one of the most dangerous cities in Arizona.
Casa Grande’s ranking for violent crime and property were 7th and 16th, respectively.
Casa Grande is a bit off the beaten path, yet it still manages its fair share of crime.
Population: 11,932Rank Last Year: 19 (Up 10)
Violent Crimes Per 100k: 360
Property Crimes Per 100k: 4,156
Cottonwood is not the refuge that you might be expecting — it ranks as the 9th most dangerous city in Arizona.
It has the 16th highest overall violent crime rate.
On the plus side, property crime ranks 8th in the state, meaning it’s not even in the top 10% of cities in Arizona.
Put differently, property crime isn’t a problem to the same extent violent crime is in the city.
Population: 29,069Rank Last Year: 14 (Up 4)
Violent Crimes Per 100k: 347
Property Crimes Per 100k: 5,091
Kingman may not even be on this list in another year if the current trends continue — violent crime was more than cut in half between 2014-16, with the number of instances falling from to 101.
Property crime also fell during this time, so Kingman is improving its crime altogether.
Locking It All Up In Arizona
The latest FBI crime data shows that Page ranks as the most dangerous city in Arizona for 2018.
However, there will be new data coming out later this year. At that point we can revisit Page’s status — that is if they haven’t beaten us all up already.
If you’re curious enough, here are the safest cities in Arizona:
For more Arizona reading , check out:
- These Are The 10 Worst Places To Live In Arizona
- These Are The 10 Most Dangerous Cities In Arizona
- These Are The 10 Most Redneck Cities In Arizona
Detailed List Of The Most Dangeroues Cities In Arizona
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